The associations between stock prices, inflation rates, interest rates are still persistent Empirical evidence from stock duration model
Keywords:Stock, Rates, DJINA, NASDAQ, Cointegration, Causality, VECM, Inflation rates, Real interest rates, Stock duration model, Cointegration causality, Stock prices, Dow Jones
Purpose: This paper aims to examine the effect of both inflation rate and interest rate on stock prices using quarterly data on non-financial firms listed in DJIA30 and NASDAQ100 for the period 1999-2016. The stock duration model is used to measure the sensitivity in variations in inflation rates and interest rates on stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach: The authors use standard statistical tools that include Johansen cointegration test, linearity, normality tests, cointegration regression, Granger causality and vector error correction model.
Findings: The results of panel Johansen cointegration analysis show that cointegration exists between the stock prices, the changes in stock prices due to inflation rates and the changes in stock prices due to real interest rates. The results of cointegration regression show that inflation rates are negatively associated with stock prices, the real interest rates and stock prices are positively associated, changes in real interest rates and inflation rates Granger cause significant changes in stock prices, significant speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium between observed stock prices and real interest rates and significant speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium between changes in stock prices due to real interest rates and changes in inflation rates.
Originality/value: This paper contributes to the empirical literature in three ways. The paper examines the effects of inflation and interest rates on stock prices differently from other related studies by separating inflation from real interest rates. The paper examines the causality between stock prices, interest and inflation rates. This paper offers significant updated validity to extended literature that a negative association exists between stock prices and inflation rates. This validity can be considered as an existence a theory of stock prices, inflation rates and interest rates.
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